3* Colorado Rockies +100
The Rockies are on fire right now, winning 7 of 8 after dropping the opener, and I don't see Jon Neise and the 4-6 Mets extinguishing the flames tonight. Neise is 0-1 in three career starts against Colorado, and the Mets have lost all three of these games. After a solid first start this season, he was blasted by the Phillies, giving up 6 earned in just 4 innings. I see another shaky start.
The Rockies send out Esmil Rogers, the great unknown in the equation tonight. He filled in nicely for Jimenez in his first start of 2011, picking up the win going 7.1 innings and allowing just 1 earned run on 4 hits while striking out 7 Pirates hitters. New York has never faced Rogers, and I expect them to have some trouble figuring him out the first few times through.
We have two teams going in opposite directions here, as the Mets have dropped 5 of their last 6. That number goes to 6 of 7 tonight. Colorado gets it done in convincing fashion on the road tonight.
3* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-110)
This is the perfect storm for runline plays. Halladay is 8-1 in 11 starts against Washington with a 1.92 era and a WHIP of just .942. He was 3-0 vs the Nats in 2010, throwing 23 innings, allowing 1 earned run on 16 hits while striking out 20.
Lannan comes into tonight with an 0-8 record against Philly in 11 career starts with a robust 6.09 era and a WHIP of 1.664. Last season, in three starts against the Phillies he was 0-2, with the Nationals losing the three games a combined 25-5.
This year people may be optimistic about Mr. Lannan; he is 1-0 in two starts with a tidy 3.6 ERA with Washington winning both of his starts. Unfortunately this is a bit of false hope; he has pitched against two feeble offensive teams. The Braves are currently 14th in the NL in average at .235 and last in runs per game at 3.4. The Marlins aren't much better at 8th in the league with a .257 average and 13th in runs per game with 3.7. Lannan pitched just 5 innings against both of these teams and tonight he faces Philadelphia: 1st in NL with a .328 batting average, more than 30 points higher than any other team, and 2nd in runs per game with 6.3. Halladay's two starts have come against the Mets and the Astros, two of the top 5 run producing teams in the league. His line this season: 1-0. 13 ip, 11h, 1er, 13k. He now gets to face a Nationals team who is 10th in runs per game and 15th in average at .224. This will be one sided from the start.