2* Astros / Reds over 8.5
The Astros are 17-11 to the over this season, and they send JA Happ to the mound. I honestly believe the Reds come close to this number on their own against Happ tonight. Cincinnati is scoring 9 runs per game against left handed starters this season, and have gone 5-0 to the over in these games.
Happ has a 13.49 ERA and a 2.191 WHIP in two road starts this year, including a 4 inning, 7 earned run start at Cincy earlier in the season.
The Astros just went under the total three games in a row in a low scoring series with the Brewers, but tonight I see them getting back to normal. If they can manage 2 or 3 runs tonight I think that will be enough. Mike Leake is off to a 3-0 start for the Reds, but he is not a shutdown pitcher right now. He has a 4.4 ERA through 5 starts, and the Astros saw him less than a month ago. I think they get 3 or 4 tonight.
Lastly, Leake gets great run support, as the Reds are averaging more than 7 runs in his starts. This one sails over the number tonight.