2* Arizona Diamondbacks -130
2* Cleveland Indians +150
2* Chicago White Sox +155
We are testing a totals model developed using advanced statistics to find value in posted totals. All plays will be flat bet (1 unit) for the 2012 season.
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Monday, May 30, 2011
Sunday, May 29, 2011
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Friday, May 27, 2011
Thursday, May 26, 2011
4* Chicago White Sox +135
Just a complete mismatch on the hill tonight, as Philip Humber and the White Sox take on Brandon Morrow and the Blue Jays. Chicago has won 6 of their last 9 games, and they look to rebound from a 2-1 loss yesterday. The last three times they have scored 0 or 1 run, they have followed with a win. They looked poised for another victory tonight when they face Brandon Morrow, who is 2-2 in 6 starts this season with a 5.06 ERA. At home he is 0-2 in 3 starts with a 7.37 ERA and a 1.564 WHIP. It doesn't get much better against Chicago; in two career starts Morrow is 0-1 with an 8.38 ERA and a 2.172 WHIP. The White Sox should score enough runs for Philip Humber to get the win.
Humber is 2-2 in 8 starts this season and sports a 2.86 ERA and a .894 WHIP. He s baffling teams that have never faced him, and tonight marks his first appearance against Toronto. The Jays have lost 5 of their last 8. They have been successful against Chicago as of late, and they do have better overall bullpen numbers than the White Sox. Their pen has blown 3 of 7 save opportunities at home though, while Chicago relievers have converted 6 of 8 chances on the road. I just see the White Sox getting to Morrow early and Humber making it stand up.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Monday, May 23, 2011
2* New York Yankees -1.5 (+125)
New York has won 5 of 6 and are averaging 6.67 runs per game in these 6 contests. Bartolo Colon gets the start against the Blue Jays, losers of 3 of their last 5 (2 of which were to the Astros). Colon looks to continue his unlikely, and HGH aided?, comeback tonight, off of an 8 inning 3 hit shutout performance last time out. In two home starts this year he has a 1.93 ERA, and he has always been successful against Toronto in his career.
The Yankees are ripping the ball lately and they face a reliever making a spot start tonight. Villanueva has been solid out of the pen, but he has not started since '09. He now has the task of taking on the Yanks in the Bronx, and I don't see it ending well. Yanks win 7-2 tonight.
Sunday, May 22, 2011
2* Cubs / Redsox Over 10.5
We got lucky lastnight, but I don't think we will have to wait around for errors tonight. This should be a slugfest with Russell and Wakefield on the mound. I expect the Sox to get 8 or 9 on their own, and I will be completely shocked if Wakefield shuts the Cubs down. Chicago is averaging 6 runs in their last 6 games, and they are averaging a very respectable 4.6 runs per game on the road this season. Boston is averaging 6.3 runs in their last 7, and 5 per home game this season. I could easily see 15-18 runs scored in this one.
We got lucky lastnight, but I don't think we will have to wait around for errors tonight. This should be a slugfest with Russell and Wakefield on the mound. I expect the Sox to get 8 or 9 on their own, and I will be completely shocked if Wakefield shuts the Cubs down. Chicago is averaging 6 runs in their last 6 games, and they are averaging a very respectable 4.6 runs per game on the road this season. Boston is averaging 6.3 runs in their last 7, and 5 per home game this season. I could easily see 15-18 runs scored in this one.
2* Seattle Mariners -120
Felix Hernandez should throw a gem this afternoon, as it looks like the Padres are back to their old ways of anemic offensive output. They are 1-4 in their last 5, averaging exactly one run per game in these 5 contests. While Seattle is not exactly tearing the cover off of the ball, they are winning games. The Mariners have won 4 in a row, and 5 of 6, with the one loss being a 2-1 pitchers duel between Hernandez and Liriano. I do not see Padres' starter Tim Stauffer shutting down the M's today though; in his last two starts he has allowed 10 earned runs on 16 hits and two homeruns in 10.2 innings pitched. I expect a similar score as last night's game. Mariners complete the sweep on the road.
Felix Hernandez should throw a gem this afternoon, as it looks like the Padres are back to their old ways of anemic offensive output. They are 1-4 in their last 5, averaging exactly one run per game in these 5 contests. While Seattle is not exactly tearing the cover off of the ball, they are winning games. The Mariners have won 4 in a row, and 5 of 6, with the one loss being a 2-1 pitchers duel between Hernandez and Liriano. I do not see Padres' starter Tim Stauffer shutting down the M's today though; in his last two starts he has allowed 10 earned runs on 16 hits and two homeruns in 10.2 innings pitched. I expect a similar score as last night's game. Mariners complete the sweep on the road.
Friday, May 20, 2011
2* Colorado Rockies +130
The Rockies have won 3 of 4 and look poised to go on a tear. They are averaging 6 runs per game in their last 7 contests, most of which were against good pitching.
The Brewers have been on fire, winning 7 of 9 before being shutout last night. Tonight's pitching matchup is fairly lopsided when you dig into the numbers:
Jason Hammel is 3-3 on the year with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.275 WHIP. On the road though, he is 1-0 in 3 starts with a 1.37 ERA and a 1.118 WHIP. He loves pitching against Milwaukee as he is 3-0 in as many starts with a 2.95 ERA. The Rockies as a team have been very successful against the Brewers, posting an 11-4 record against them in the last 3 seasons.
Zack Greinke is 2-1 this year despite a 6.6 ERA. This number is actually deceiving on the low end in my opinion, as he has pitched against Atlanta (16th in MLB in runs per game at 4.09), San Diego (24th in MLB at 3.7), and Pittsburgh (25th in MLB at 3.85). He now throws against a Rockies team that is 8th in the majors and 3rd in the NL, averaging 4.52 runs per game. Right now, as previously mentioned, they're even better at the plate. Greinke should have his hands full tonight; he is 1-1 in 2 starts against Colorado with a 9.65 ERA and a 1.929 ERA. In these two starts he has allowed 18 hits including 2 home runs in 9.1 innings. Talk about value on the road dog tonight.
The Rockies have won 3 of 4 and look poised to go on a tear. They are averaging 6 runs per game in their last 7 contests, most of which were against good pitching.
The Brewers have been on fire, winning 7 of 9 before being shutout last night. Tonight's pitching matchup is fairly lopsided when you dig into the numbers:
Jason Hammel is 3-3 on the year with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.275 WHIP. On the road though, he is 1-0 in 3 starts with a 1.37 ERA and a 1.118 WHIP. He loves pitching against Milwaukee as he is 3-0 in as many starts with a 2.95 ERA. The Rockies as a team have been very successful against the Brewers, posting an 11-4 record against them in the last 3 seasons.
Zack Greinke is 2-1 this year despite a 6.6 ERA. This number is actually deceiving on the low end in my opinion, as he has pitched against Atlanta (16th in MLB in runs per game at 4.09), San Diego (24th in MLB at 3.7), and Pittsburgh (25th in MLB at 3.85). He now throws against a Rockies team that is 8th in the majors and 3rd in the NL, averaging 4.52 runs per game. Right now, as previously mentioned, they're even better at the plate. Greinke should have his hands full tonight; he is 1-1 in 2 starts against Colorado with a 9.65 ERA and a 1.929 ERA. In these two starts he has allowed 18 hits including 2 home runs in 9.1 innings. Talk about value on the road dog tonight.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
2* St Louis Cardinals -1.5 +130
Kyle McClellan is 5-1 in 7 starts (Cardinals 6-1); at home, he is even better, posting a 1-0 record in 3 starts (Cards 3-0) with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.158 WHIP. He faces the Astros today who are just 2-9 in their last 11 including losses in their last 4 games. In these 11 games, they are averaging less than 3 runs per game. McClellan has already defeated the Astros, although it wasn't pretty, in Houston three weeks ago. Returning to his home mound, pitching against a struggling Houston team should give him a lot of confidence, and I expect a dominant performance.
The Astros counter with J.A. Happ whose potential is what most people talk about. Potential is a crutch of the talentless. Happ is 3-4 this season with a 5.4 ERA and a 1.5 WHIP; on the road the numbers get worse: 1-2 8.14 and 1.810. He is throwing against a Cardinals team who is hitting the ball well right now, averaging nearly 5 runs per game in their last 10. Although they have let us down before, there is a huge advantage in the Cards' bullpen over the Houston relievers, so if we need a run in the late innings it is likely we will get it.
One Night Play at 7:05
Kyle McClellan is 5-1 in 7 starts (Cardinals 6-1); at home, he is even better, posting a 1-0 record in 3 starts (Cards 3-0) with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.158 WHIP. He faces the Astros today who are just 2-9 in their last 11 including losses in their last 4 games. In these 11 games, they are averaging less than 3 runs per game. McClellan has already defeated the Astros, although it wasn't pretty, in Houston three weeks ago. Returning to his home mound, pitching against a struggling Houston team should give him a lot of confidence, and I expect a dominant performance.
The Astros counter with J.A. Happ whose potential is what most people talk about. Potential is a crutch of the talentless. Happ is 3-4 this season with a 5.4 ERA and a 1.5 WHIP; on the road the numbers get worse: 1-2 8.14 and 1.810. He is throwing against a Cardinals team who is hitting the ball well right now, averaging nearly 5 runs per game in their last 10. Although they have let us down before, there is a huge advantage in the Cards' bullpen over the Houston relievers, so if we need a run in the late innings it is likely we will get it.
One Night Play at 7:05
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
2* San Francisco Giants +130
San Fran is 7-2 in their last 9, including the loss lastnight with Lincecum on the mound. They will be hungry today against the Rockies, and I see a perfect scenario to get the offense going and get a big win. Fade Jimenez until he turns it around. Not sure about the truth to the rumors about Ubaldo telling front office personnel that he would stop trying until he gets a better contract, because he feels snubbed by Tulowitzki and Gonzalez's contract extensions. Whether this is the case, or he is tipping pitches, or if he is still injured, the fact is he is getting lit up by everyone right now. He currently has a 6.67 ERA, averaging just 5 innings per start, and at home in 4 starts his numbers are 0-3 with an 8.68 ERA and he is lasting just 4.2 innings per start. He is 5-6 (Rockies 6-10) in 16 career starts against the Giants, including 2 losses in 2 starts against them this season.
Jonathan Sanchez gets the start for the Giants today, and he is off to a good start in 2011, posting a 3-2 record with a 3.68 ERA. He is just 4-4 in his career against the Rockies, but he has already defeated them earlier this year in a 6-3 game. If he can just hold them to 5 or less runs, I see the Giants winning this one. San Francisco is 5-2 against Colorado this season, and I think they destroy them today and move to 6-2.
2* Giants / Rockies over 8 -120
In addition to the lack of confidence in Jimenez (6-0 to the over in his starts this year) leading to offense from the Giants today:
Colorado is averaging 5.4 runs per game in their last 7.
Colorado is 12-1 to the over in day games.
San Francisco is 9-3 to the over against teams with winning records.
These two teams are 5-2 to the over this year and 4-0 to the over at Coors Field.
San Fran is 7-2 in their last 9, including the loss lastnight with Lincecum on the mound. They will be hungry today against the Rockies, and I see a perfect scenario to get the offense going and get a big win. Fade Jimenez until he turns it around. Not sure about the truth to the rumors about Ubaldo telling front office personnel that he would stop trying until he gets a better contract, because he feels snubbed by Tulowitzki and Gonzalez's contract extensions. Whether this is the case, or he is tipping pitches, or if he is still injured, the fact is he is getting lit up by everyone right now. He currently has a 6.67 ERA, averaging just 5 innings per start, and at home in 4 starts his numbers are 0-3 with an 8.68 ERA and he is lasting just 4.2 innings per start. He is 5-6 (Rockies 6-10) in 16 career starts against the Giants, including 2 losses in 2 starts against them this season.
Jonathan Sanchez gets the start for the Giants today, and he is off to a good start in 2011, posting a 3-2 record with a 3.68 ERA. He is just 4-4 in his career against the Rockies, but he has already defeated them earlier this year in a 6-3 game. If he can just hold them to 5 or less runs, I see the Giants winning this one. San Francisco is 5-2 against Colorado this season, and I think they destroy them today and move to 6-2.
2* Giants / Rockies over 8 -120
In addition to the lack of confidence in Jimenez (6-0 to the over in his starts this year) leading to offense from the Giants today:
Colorado is averaging 5.4 runs per game in their last 7.
Colorado is 12-1 to the over in day games.
San Francisco is 9-3 to the over against teams with winning records.
These two teams are 5-2 to the over this year and 4-0 to the over at Coors Field.
Monday, May 9, 2011
2* Colorado Rockies -1.5 (+120)
This runline should be favored, so well gladly take the plus money. The reason the moneyline is not as big as it should be is the Rockies' recent struggles. They are 1-6 in their last 7. They return home today after a 6 game road trip during which they won one game. That win came via today's starter -- Jhoulys Chacin, who went 7 innings and allowed just 2 earned on 3 runs at Arizona.
Chacin is 4-2 in 6 starts this season with a 2.85 ERA and a 1.146 WHIP. At home he's been even better, posting a 2-1 record with a 1.17 ERA and a .913 WHIP averaging 7.2 innings in 3 starts. He is facing the Mets for the first time, and I expect their unfamiliarity to allow him to cruise through the first 4 or 5 innings easily tonight. The Mets won three in a row before losing last night, but they are just 2-8 against teams with winning records and 8-16 against right handed starters. I don't expect them to hit Chacin well at all tonight.
The Rockies' offense will wake up tonight against Chris Capuano who is 2-3 in 5 starts with a 5.28 ERA and a 1.532 WHIP. In one road start this season he threw 5.2 innings and allowed 4 earned on 10 hits in a loss at Washington. Capuano faced the Rockies three weeks ago and got shelled for 7 earned in 5.2 innings. I'm liking the Rockies to stop their slide tonight and move to 5-0 against the Mets on the year with a big victory.
This runline should be favored, so well gladly take the plus money. The reason the moneyline is not as big as it should be is the Rockies' recent struggles. They are 1-6 in their last 7. They return home today after a 6 game road trip during which they won one game. That win came via today's starter -- Jhoulys Chacin, who went 7 innings and allowed just 2 earned on 3 runs at Arizona.
Chacin is 4-2 in 6 starts this season with a 2.85 ERA and a 1.146 WHIP. At home he's been even better, posting a 2-1 record with a 1.17 ERA and a .913 WHIP averaging 7.2 innings in 3 starts. He is facing the Mets for the first time, and I expect their unfamiliarity to allow him to cruise through the first 4 or 5 innings easily tonight. The Mets won three in a row before losing last night, but they are just 2-8 against teams with winning records and 8-16 against right handed starters. I don't expect them to hit Chacin well at all tonight.
The Rockies' offense will wake up tonight against Chris Capuano who is 2-3 in 5 starts with a 5.28 ERA and a 1.532 WHIP. In one road start this season he threw 5.2 innings and allowed 4 earned on 10 hits in a loss at Washington. Capuano faced the Rockies three weeks ago and got shelled for 7 earned in 5.2 innings. I'm liking the Rockies to stop their slide tonight and move to 5-0 against the Mets on the year with a big victory.
Thursday, May 5, 2011
2* Florida Marlins -125
The Marlins have won 7 of 10, scoring 5.5 runs per game in that stretch. They have Josh Johnson going today, and he has been dominating all year. He is just 3-0 in 6 starts, but he has a .88 ERA and a .710 WHIP. On the road he has yet to give up a run, throwing 14.1 innings, allowing just 6 hits and striking out 13. His last 3 starts he has gone 21 combined innings, allowing one run on 10 hits while fanning 21.
The Marlins are 10-5 on the road and 9-3 against teams with winning records.
Jake Westbrook gets the ball for the Cardinals today, and he is coming off of two good starts. On the year he is 2-2 in 6 starts with a 6.53 ERA and a 1.878 WHIP. In three home starts he is 1-2 with a whopping 10.13 ERA and a 1.95 WHIP. In one start last year against Florida he went 7 innings and allowed 3 earned and 2 homeruns en route to the loss. The Cards are just 7-9 at home in 2011 and I don't see them pulling this one out today.
The Marlins have won 7 of 10, scoring 5.5 runs per game in that stretch. They have Josh Johnson going today, and he has been dominating all year. He is just 3-0 in 6 starts, but he has a .88 ERA and a .710 WHIP. On the road he has yet to give up a run, throwing 14.1 innings, allowing just 6 hits and striking out 13. His last 3 starts he has gone 21 combined innings, allowing one run on 10 hits while fanning 21.
The Marlins are 10-5 on the road and 9-3 against teams with winning records.
Jake Westbrook gets the ball for the Cardinals today, and he is coming off of two good starts. On the year he is 2-2 in 6 starts with a 6.53 ERA and a 1.878 WHIP. In three home starts he is 1-2 with a whopping 10.13 ERA and a 1.95 WHIP. In one start last year against Florida he went 7 innings and allowed 3 earned and 2 homeruns en route to the loss. The Cards are just 7-9 at home in 2011 and I don't see them pulling this one out today.
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
2* Houston Astros +185
This is as much a fade of Reds starter Travis Wood as it is a play on Houston. Wood, in jeopardy of losing his spot in the rotation is struggling mightily right now. He is 1-3 in 6 starts with a 6.82 ERA and a 1.548 WHIP; at home he is 1-2 with a 9.22 ERA and a 1.684 WHIP. He is 0-1 in two career starts against Houston (both last year) with a 4.5 ERA. The Reds are now just 4-10 against teams with losing records this season.
The Astros have won 3 in a row and should be buoyed by this momentum this afternoon. They are averaging 4.7 runs per game vs. left handed starters, and should increase that number against Wood today. They give rookie Aneury Rodriguez the spot start today after just 8 mediocre innings in relief, but Cincy has only seen him for one inning and I like the unknown factor. I expect the Astros to jump out to an early lead and never look back.
This is as much a fade of Reds starter Travis Wood as it is a play on Houston. Wood, in jeopardy of losing his spot in the rotation is struggling mightily right now. He is 1-3 in 6 starts with a 6.82 ERA and a 1.548 WHIP; at home he is 1-2 with a 9.22 ERA and a 1.684 WHIP. He is 0-1 in two career starts against Houston (both last year) with a 4.5 ERA. The Reds are now just 4-10 against teams with losing records this season.
The Astros have won 3 in a row and should be buoyed by this momentum this afternoon. They are averaging 4.7 runs per game vs. left handed starters, and should increase that number against Wood today. They give rookie Aneury Rodriguez the spot start today after just 8 mediocre innings in relief, but Cincy has only seen him for one inning and I like the unknown factor. I expect the Astros to jump out to an early lead and never look back.
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
2* Astros / Reds over 8.5
The Astros are 17-11 to the over this season, and they send JA Happ to the mound. I honestly believe the Reds come close to this number on their own against Happ tonight. Cincinnati is scoring 9 runs per game against left handed starters this season, and have gone 5-0 to the over in these games.
Happ has a 13.49 ERA and a 2.191 WHIP in two road starts this year, including a 4 inning, 7 earned run start at Cincy earlier in the season.
The Astros just went under the total three games in a row in a low scoring series with the Brewers, but tonight I see them getting back to normal. If they can manage 2 or 3 runs tonight I think that will be enough. Mike Leake is off to a 3-0 start for the Reds, but he is not a shutdown pitcher right now. He has a 4.4 ERA through 5 starts, and the Astros saw him less than a month ago. I think they get 3 or 4 tonight.
Lastly, Leake gets great run support, as the Reds are averaging more than 7 runs in his starts. This one sails over the number tonight.
The Astros are 17-11 to the over this season, and they send JA Happ to the mound. I honestly believe the Reds come close to this number on their own against Happ tonight. Cincinnati is scoring 9 runs per game against left handed starters this season, and have gone 5-0 to the over in these games.
Happ has a 13.49 ERA and a 2.191 WHIP in two road starts this year, including a 4 inning, 7 earned run start at Cincy earlier in the season.
The Astros just went under the total three games in a row in a low scoring series with the Brewers, but tonight I see them getting back to normal. If they can manage 2 or 3 runs tonight I think that will be enough. Mike Leake is off to a 3-0 start for the Reds, but he is not a shutdown pitcher right now. He has a 4.4 ERA through 5 starts, and the Astros saw him less than a month ago. I think they get 3 or 4 tonight.
Lastly, Leake gets great run support, as the Reds are averaging more than 7 runs in his starts. This one sails over the number tonight.
Monday, May 2, 2011
2* LA Angels -110
The Angels have won 4 of 6 and now they send the best the best pitcher in baseball to the mound. Jered Weaver is 6-0 this season with a .99 ERA and a .778 WHIP. On the road he is 4-0 with a 1.24 ERA and a .690 WHIP. He has thrown back to back complete games, and he goes on 6 days rest tonight. In 20 career starts on 6 days rest or more he has a 2.27 ERA and a 1.048 WHIP, sharper than his career numbers on 4 and 5 days rest.
The Angels are averaging 5 runs per game in their last 6, and this season they are 9-5 on the road. Tonight they look to avenge a 4 game sweep in Anaheim a few weeks back. They travel to Boston to take on the Red Sox who are just 5-6 at home this season and 2-4 in their last six, averaging just 3 runs per game in this stretch. The Sox give the ball to Clay Buchholz who has enjoyed success against the Angels in his career. He is 4-2 with a 4.1 ERA including a 7 inning shutout performance in a win against Weaver last August. This is a new year though, and Buchholz is not on his game. He is 1-3 in 5 starts with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.852 WHIP. In two starts at Fenway he is 0-1, throwing just 8.2 innings and allowing 7 earned on 11 hits and 8 walks.
Look for the Angels to manage 4-6 runs off of Buchholz and the shaky Boston pen, and for Weaver to throw another dominating game against the struggling Boston bats.
2* New York Yankees +110
The Yankees have won 4 of 5 after a two game skid against the White Sox. Bartolo Colon started this turnaround with an 8 inning 1 run performance in his second start of the year. He has surprised alot of people this season, but he is rejuvenated this year in New York. He will look to make it 3 strong starts in a row tonight against a struggling Tigers team who have lost six in a row, averaging less than 3 runs per game. On the year, Detroit is averaging just 3.8 runs per home game. I like Colon's chances, a's the Tigers have not seen him since 2009, and they are really struggling at the plate right now. Detroit is 6-12 against right handed starters this season.
The Yankees, who are hot once again, are averaging 6.7 runs per game on the road, hitting 14 home runs in just 7 away games. This could be disastrous for Tigers' starter Justin Verlander, having given up 4 longballs in just 3 starts at home this season. He is 1-2 at home and just 2-3 overall on the young season. In his career against the Yankees he is 4-3 in 10 starts with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.5 WHIP. He had lost his last two starts against New York, including opening day this season, and his last start of 2010 against New York in August. We can't pass up this value on the first place Yankees against the 12-16 Tigers.
The Angels have won 4 of 6 and now they send the best the best pitcher in baseball to the mound. Jered Weaver is 6-0 this season with a .99 ERA and a .778 WHIP. On the road he is 4-0 with a 1.24 ERA and a .690 WHIP. He has thrown back to back complete games, and he goes on 6 days rest tonight. In 20 career starts on 6 days rest or more he has a 2.27 ERA and a 1.048 WHIP, sharper than his career numbers on 4 and 5 days rest.
The Angels are averaging 5 runs per game in their last 6, and this season they are 9-5 on the road. Tonight they look to avenge a 4 game sweep in Anaheim a few weeks back. They travel to Boston to take on the Red Sox who are just 5-6 at home this season and 2-4 in their last six, averaging just 3 runs per game in this stretch. The Sox give the ball to Clay Buchholz who has enjoyed success against the Angels in his career. He is 4-2 with a 4.1 ERA including a 7 inning shutout performance in a win against Weaver last August. This is a new year though, and Buchholz is not on his game. He is 1-3 in 5 starts with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.852 WHIP. In two starts at Fenway he is 0-1, throwing just 8.2 innings and allowing 7 earned on 11 hits and 8 walks.
Look for the Angels to manage 4-6 runs off of Buchholz and the shaky Boston pen, and for Weaver to throw another dominating game against the struggling Boston bats.
2* New York Yankees +110
The Yankees have won 4 of 5 after a two game skid against the White Sox. Bartolo Colon started this turnaround with an 8 inning 1 run performance in his second start of the year. He has surprised alot of people this season, but he is rejuvenated this year in New York. He will look to make it 3 strong starts in a row tonight against a struggling Tigers team who have lost six in a row, averaging less than 3 runs per game. On the year, Detroit is averaging just 3.8 runs per home game. I like Colon's chances, a's the Tigers have not seen him since 2009, and they are really struggling at the plate right now. Detroit is 6-12 against right handed starters this season.
The Yankees, who are hot once again, are averaging 6.7 runs per game on the road, hitting 14 home runs in just 7 away games. This could be disastrous for Tigers' starter Justin Verlander, having given up 4 longballs in just 3 starts at home this season. He is 1-2 at home and just 2-3 overall on the young season. In his career against the Yankees he is 4-3 in 10 starts with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.5 WHIP. He had lost his last two starts against New York, including opening day this season, and his last start of 2010 against New York in August. We can't pass up this value on the first place Yankees against the 12-16 Tigers.
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